Prediction of the future temperature in Qinghai Lake

doi:10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639（2024）-01-0064

Abstract

Abstract:

Qinghai Lake plays an important role in the ecological security of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and it is very important to

deeply understand the characteristics of future lake surface temperature changes of Qinghai Lake. We evaluated the conventional meteorological data of three global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) through site observations and reanalysis data. Freshwater Lake Model (FLake) was evaluated by using the observed data and MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) surface temperature data to predict the evolution trend of lake temperature under four different discharge scenarios (SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585)in the future, and to elucidate the driving mechanism of lake surface temperature change and its potential impact on the living environment of Gymnocyprisprzewalskii. The results are as follows:(1) The historical meteorological data of the reanalysis data and the CMIP6 multi-model collection are superior to the single model. From 2015 to 2100, the average annual lake

surface temperature of Qinghai Lake continued to rise under four scenarios. Under SSP126 scenarios, the warming rate after 2050 is lower than that in the historical period, while under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, the warming rate before and after 2050 is higher than that in the historical period, in which air temperature is the main driving factor of lake surface temperature. (2)In the future different periods, the monthly and daily maximum lake surface temperature in different stages will appear in August, and in the recent period (2020-2041), there is little difference among different scenarios. In the middle period (2041-2080), the differences between the scenarios gradually increased. In the long run (2081-2100), the average daily lake surface temperature in August basically exceeded 20.00 ℃, and the maximum daily temperature even reached 23.31 ℃, Gymnocyprisprzewalskii would be at a high risk.

Key words: , Qinghai Lake； lake surface temperature； CMIP6 estimation； multimode set； Gymnocyprisprzewalskii

摘要：

青海湖对青藏高原的生态安全有着重要作用，深入理解青海湖未来湖表温度变化特征至关重

要。本文通过站点观测数据和再分析数据评估第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（Coupled Model Inter⁃

comparison Project 6，CMIP6）中3个全球气候模式的常规气象数据，并利用观测数据和MODIS地表温

度数据评估一维湖泊模式（Freshwater Lake Model，FLake）在青海湖的适用性，预测4种不同排放情景

（SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585）青海湖未来湖温的演变趋势，阐明湖温变化的驱动机制及其对青

海湖裸鲤生存环境的潜在影响。结果表明：（1）再分析数据和CMIP6多模式集合的历史气象数据优于

单个模式。2015—2100年，青海湖年均湖表温度持续升高，但由于社会共享经济路径（Shared Socio⁃

economic Pathway，SSP）和辐射强迫的差异，CMIP6 4种不同排放情景Flake模拟的湖表温度升温速率

表现出明显差异。SSP126情景2050年后的升温速率低于历史水平，而在SSP245、SSP370和SSP585

情景，2050年前后的升温速率均高于历史水平，气温是湖温上升的主要驱动因素。（2）未来不同时期

的月、日最高湖表温度均出现在8月，近期（2021—2040年）各情景之间湖表温度差异较小，日均湖表

温度基本在20.00 ℃以下；中期（2041—2080年）各情景间差异逐渐增大；远期（2081—2100年）8月日

均湖表温度将超过20.00 ℃，多年日均湖表温度最高可达23.31 ℃，可对青海湖裸鲤的生长造成严重威

胁，使其处于较高风险。

关键词: 青海湖, 湖表温度, CMIP6预估, 多模式集合, 青海湖裸鲤

CLC Number:

P461+. 5

DONG Jingwei, WEN Lijuan, YU Tao, YANG Yongshun, LUO Ying, WANG Mengxiao, NIU Ruijia. Prediction of the future temperature in Qinghai Lake[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(1): 64-74.

董靖玮, 文莉娟, 于涛, 杨永顺, 罗颖, 王梦晓, 牛瑞佳. 青海湖湖温预估研究[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(1): 64-74.

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